It’s only mid-October, but the College Football Playoff starts a bit early this Saturday in Ann Arbor, Michigan. 

In a rematch of the 2023 national title game, Washington visits Michigan in a contest that will leave the loser with a difficult — if not impossible — path to reaching the CFP. 

Michigan is likely playing for its season after the Wolverines suffered their second loss of the year last week against USC. A third loss, at any point, will likely have them on the outside looking in come selection time in December.

The culprit in those two losses is why I like the Under early on in this one.

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Let’s look at the offense, or lack there of, for Michigan. 

That unit was shut down in a Week 2 loss to Oklahoma and could only muster 13 points last week against a USC team that is known more for its offense than its defense. Quarterback Bryce Underwood was highly touted coming out of high school, but the true freshman has looked his age at times and does not have the luxury of having elite receiving weapons around him. 

Underwood does, however, have a star running back to give the ball to in Justice Haynes. But Haynes is injured and is questionable to play in this pivotal matchup. 

Washington can probably afford one more loss, but if the Huskies can’t beat Michigan this week, that would likely require them to run the table, including beating both Illinois and Oregon in that stretch. 

While Michigan has struggled offensively, Washington does have some dynamic players on that side of the ball. It’s important to keep in mind, though, that this game starts at noon ET. That’s an early start time that many West Coast teams have struggled with. 

Washington’s lone loss came to Ohio State 24-6 — a game that was scoreless until the second quarter. 

Also, just two weeks ago, Washington played on the East Coast and was held scoreless until the second half against Maryland — a game in which Washington overcame a 20-0 deficit to eventually win. 

Michigan is very good on defense but limited on offense. All of these things add up to a game that should be low scoring early on.

PICK: First quarter Under 10.5 points scored

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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