“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

We were up last week, and we’re up on the season. Can’t really ask for much more than that. 

Let’s keep rolling.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 20-12-1

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No. 8 Alabama @ No. 14 Missouri

Love the spot here for Missouri. The Tigers were off last week, and Alabama has just played consecutive emotional games, including ending the nation’s longest home winning streak at Georgia and then getting revenge on a ranked, undefeated Vanderbilt. And the Tigers have massive revenge at stake off a 34-0 loss last year to the Tide. On the field, Alabama has been vulnerable to the run this year, giving up 230 yards at Florida State and 227 at Georgia. Enter dual-threat QB Beau Pribula and RB Ahmad Hardy. Injuries and general wear and tear on the defensive side of the ball for the Tide could be a big factor. More on this game in the Bear Bytes section, but I am on board with M-I-Z here. 

PICK: Missouri (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

Indiana feels like last week’s Vanderbilt. Seems like everyone is on the ‘dog here, but my Bear Bets colleague Geoff Schwartz asked a great question on the show: “Where is Indiana better than Oregon?” While he is an Oregon alum, he’s not one of those guys with blind faith for his teams. The Hoosiers’ numbers away from home last year against good teams were not good at all (see the Bear Bytes section for specifics) and I’m not sure that they will be able to run the ball on a good Oregon front. Penn State sure as heck couldn’t and the Nittany Lions have one of the best RB tandems in the country. I’ll lay it here with the Ducks, who people seem to be questioning this week after Penn State’s loss at UCLA. “Is Oregon that good? Look what happened to Penn State.” Problem with that thinking is, if you think the Penn State that showed up last week at the Rose Bowl was the same Penn State that showed up for the White Out, you’re wrong. Oregon ripped its heart out two weeks ago and now the Ducks get to use that fuel of doubt on another top-10 opponent this week. 

PICK: Oregon (-7) to win by more than 7 points

Air Force @ UNLV

I get not wanting to back an academy after a close loss to another academy, but UNLV could have some problems here slowing down the Flyboys’ run game. It’s a borderline miracle the Rebels are undefeated at this point in the season, and I’ll take the points. 

PICK: Air Force (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright

Wake Forest @ Oregon State

The winless Beavers probably deserved a better fate against both Houston and Appalachian State. Now they come home and host a team making the lengthy cross-country trip off an upset win at Virginia Tech. Maalik Murphy is prone to turning the ball over, but he’s also very capable of making the big play. Beavs have a great chance to get their first win of the season. 

PICK: Oregon State (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

No. 22 Iowa State @ Colorado

I wasn’t expecting to back the Buffaloes here, but here we are. CU very easily could have won both games against BYU (3-for-9 on third down) and TCU (-4 in turnover margin) the last couple of weeks. Now it gets an Iowa State team off its first loss of the season and one that has quite a few injury concerns. If Kaidon Salter doesn’t turn it over four times, there will be plenty of chances for the Buffs to generate some big plays against a defense that allowed 474 yards on eight yards per play last week in that loss at Cincinnati. 

TCU @ Kansas State

K-State did everything but win last week at Baylor. Avery Johnson had his best game of the year, but the Cats couldn’t hold on to a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead. K-State has now lost four games this year by a combined 13 points. I’m not sold the TCU defense can slow the Cats offense down and this seems like a spot where K-State lets out some frustration from a season of close calls. 

PICK: Kansas State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Last Week: 1-1, +1.2
Season: 11-16, +8.9 

Oregon State +120
Kansas State +100
Missouri +130
Air Force +205
Colorado +115

BEAR BYTES 

Preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State and No. 4 Clemson are all unranked and have a combined seven losses. Their eight wins this year have come over FIU, Nevada, North Carolina, Sam Houston State, San Jose State, Troy, UTEP and Villanova. 

Since the start of 2023, Oregon is an FBS-best 17-0 at home and Missouri is tied for second at 18-1. Both are involved in ranked matchups this week — No. 3 Oregon is hosting No. 7 Indiana and No. 14 Missouri is hosting No. 8 Alabama. 

There are three unranked teams favored over ranked teams this week: Texas -1.5 against No. 6 Oklahoma, USC -2.5 vs. No. 15 Michigan and Utah -6.5 vs. No. 21 Arizona State. Unranked teams in this spot so far this season have won two of three games — Arizona State over TCU and Cincinnati over Iowa State. The loser was Nebraska vs. Michigan. So, this is the second time a ranked Michigan team has been a road underdog vs. an unranked team. 

This is the first time since 2022 that both Penn State and Texas will play a game as an unranked team. 

It Just Means More… 

Most TO + sacks allowed + penalties per game among Power 4 teams: 

Auburn — 3.2
South Carolina — 12.2
Mississippi State — 12.0
Texas — 11.8
Texas A&M — 11.6
Louisville — 11.6

Texas vs. No. 6 Oklahoma 

Much has been made of James Franklin’s 4-21 mark at Penn State against top-10 teams and 3-12 mark in top-10 matchups. But Steve Sarkisian’s mark at Texas isn’t much better. Sark is 3-8 against top-10 teams and 2-5 in top-10 matchups. Both have a CFP semifinal appearance on their resume. 

This would be the first Oklahoma-Texas game with a spread under a field goal since 1995, when the game ended in a 24-24 tie. 

The Longhorns have won three of the last four meetings when they entered the game unranked and the Sooners were in the top 10. On the flip side, Oklahoma won the only time it entered the game unranked and the Longhorns entered in the top 10. 

This is the first time since 2017 that an unranked Texas will play a ranked Oklahoma team. Each of the last five instances when unranked Texas faced a ranked OU team, Texas either won or lost by less than a touchdown. 

Massachusetts @ Kent State

This snaps a streak of 27 consecutive games vs. FBS opponents in which Kent State is an underdog. The last time the Golden Flashes were favored vs. an FBS team was 2022, when they lost 31-24 to Eastern Michigan as 7.5-point favorites. 

No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

In two road games last season against top-five teams, Indiana scored 32 total points, was outscored by 16.5 points per game, outgained by 140.5 yards per game and averaged 3.6 yards per play. Its first touchdown at Notre Dame came with 1:27 remaining and the score 27-3. It scored on its first drive at Ohio State, but didn’t score again until the score was 31-7 Buckeyes. 

This is the fifth top-10 matchup this season. The first four were all won by the lower ranked team and each was decided by seven points or fewer. 

Dating back to the 2022 CFP Championship Game, there have been 37 top-10 matchups. The spread hasn’t mattered in 34 of the 37. Win the game, and you cover the spread all but three times (34-1-2). In that stretch, 14 underdogs have won outright, with Washington’s win over Oregon in the 2023 Pac 12 game as a 10-point ‘dog the lone ’dog of at least six points to win outright. The only favorite in that stretch to win outright and take a loss against the spread (ATS) was Texas in last year’s CFP, when it beat Arizona State 39-31 as a 13.5-point favorite. 

Oregon has allowed one sack and committed one turnover this season. If you look at bad or undisciplined plays, these are two of the best in the country at not committing them. Oregon has a combined 20 penalties, sacks allowed and turnovers lost. And 4.0 per game is the fewest in the nation. Indiana averages 5.3 per game, which is tied for fourth.

In fact, six of the eight teams in the country who commit the fewest per game are in the Big Ten. 

Iowa @ Wisconsin 

Iowa is seeking its first four-game winning streak over Wisconsin since 2002-2005.  Each of the last five meetings has been decided by more than one score and the loser hasn’t scored more than 10 points.

No. 18 BYU @ Arizona 

Dating back to 2017, there have been seven games in which a team that’s 5-0 or better has been favored on the road over a team with a winning record by less than a field goal. Those seven teams went 1-6 ATS and 2-5 outright. 

No. 21 Arizona State @ Utah

Dating back to 2017, there have been 20 ranked teams that were underdogs of at least 5.5 points to an unranked team. Those 20 teams have gone 4-16 straight up (SU) and the last four each lost by double digits. 

No. 1 Ohio State @ No. 17 Illinois

Ohio State has won and covered seven straight against ranked teams. The average margin of victory in those games is 15.3 PPG. 

The last four instances that Illinois went into a game as at least 14-point ‘dog, the Illini scored nine, seven, 13 and 17 points, the first two coming last year against No. 1 Oregon and No. 9 Penn State when Illinois entered the game ranked 20th and 19th. 

In the CFP era, AP No. 1 is 121-2 when favored by at least 14 points. The two losses are both by Alabama — last year at Vanderbilt and in 2021 at Texas A&M. 

The story of the year for Illinois has been creating and capitalizing off turnovers. It is first in points off TO differential (+42), first in opponent fumbles lost (8), tied for first in points off turnovers (52), and tied for second in turnover margin (+7).      

Illinois has allowed 19 sacks this year, which is second most in the P4. The 11% sack rate is 131st in the FBS. 

No. 8 Alabama @ No. 14 Missouri

Kalen DeBoer teams are 6-1 when favored in ranked matchups. The lone loss came last year at Tennessee when the Tide were 3.5-point favorites. 

Alabama forced two red zone turnovers last week and leads all P4 teams with a +8 TO margin.

All six of Alabama’s opponents this season have entered the game undefeated. 

Alabama beat Missouri 34-0 last year when Brady Cook was injured and then backup Drew Pyne was picked off three times. Since 1978, there have been 28 instances where a ranked team allowed more than 30 points in a shutout loss and had a chance at revenge the following season. The results have been pretty good for the revenge-minded team, with 10 winning outright and another eight losing by four points or fewer. Most of the teams that got blown out in the rematch faced some of the best teams of the era — vintage Alabama, Miami, Florida State and Nebraska. 

So history tells us that, with payback on the line, this one will be close. If you look solely at the last 25 years, five of eight won outright, two lost by a field goal and one lost to national champ Alabama. The most recent example was Oklahoma State in 2023, which lost to Kansas State 48-0 in 2022 and then beat K-State 29-21 the following season. 

Washington State @ No. 4 Ole Miss

This is the eighth time since 2022 that Ole Miss is favored by 30 points or more. The Rebels covered six of the seven and won those seven games by a 410-36 margin, allowing more than seven points only once. 

No. 10 Georgia @ Auburn

Last year’s OT win over Texas A&M snapped a nine-game home losing streak as an underdog for Auburn. 

Georgia has won eight straight against Auburn, each by at least seven points and six of eight by at least 17 points. 

Auburn has allowed a national-high 4.2 sacks per game and a 13% sack rate.  

Auburn leads the nation in opponent rush success rate at 74.7%. Georgia is fifth at 72.1 %. Which QB will be able to throw and/or create on broken plays will determine a winner here. 

Pitt @ No. 25 Florida State

Florida State has lost seven straight ACC games and is 1-9 in ACC play dating back to last year. Pitt is 1-7 in its last eight games vs. P4 teams. 

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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