“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but we were in the money again last week.

I like the sound of that tune.

College football week 8, be good to us.

Last Week: 3-2-1
Season: 23-14-2

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No. 12 Georgia Tech @ Duke 

The Duke offense, when not turning the ball over, which it hasn’t in the last three games, has been very good. Stats like yards per play, touchdown percentage and the like rank quite highly when you drill national ranks down to Power Four teams vs. other Power Four teams. That five-turnover debacle loss against Illinois appears to be an outlier. The Jackets are going to be down a couple of starters on defense, including their best defensive back in Amari Harvey. I suggested a couple of weeks back that Duke might be a good bet to reach the ACC Championship Game and this is a good time to start that moneyline rollover parlay. 

PICK: Duke (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points 

No. 5 Ole Miss @ No. 9 Georgia

As our friend Bill Raftery would say, this Georgia team has “onions.” Twice this year it has rallied on the road from double-digits down to win. While UGA has some offensive line injury concerns, the Bulldogs still run the ball extremely well and are better up front on both sides than Ole Miss. Factor in Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss making his first SEC road start, and it adds up to Georgia handing the Rebels their first loss of the year. 

PICK: Georgia (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points

Washington @ Michigan

So much talk about Washington deserving to be ranked this week, and while the record shows 5-1, I’m just not sure the quality of wins is there to justify it — along with a three-score home loss to Ohio State. That comeback win at Maryland was quite an accomplishment, considering last year’s road woes. Michigan was soundly beaten at USC last week, and I’d expect the Wolverines to be extra chippy this week after what was probably a spirited week of practice. With or without Justice Haynes, I expect Michigan to do enough offensively and Wink Martindale’s defense to limit Demond Williams’ big plays, resulting in a win by at least a touchdown.

PICK: Michigan (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

Iowa team total Under 21.5 points

Penn State’s defense has struggled to adapt to Jim Knowles’ scheme this year, but it’s not like Iowa is going to create a lot of stress on Penn State’s defense. Now, maybe the Nittany Lions will throw in the towel after this week’s coaching change, but I think we will see an inspired effort. The lack of an experienced QB will likely mean we’re going to see a very run-heavy Penn State offense. And that means Iowa likely won’t have the ball very much. More than three touchdowns to beat me? Sure, sign me up.

PICK: Iowa team total Under 21.5 points

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Last Week: 2-3, -.85
Season: 13-19, +8.05

South Carolina +180
Baylor +130
Penn State +130
Central Michigan +165
UL Monroe +195
Georgia State +210

BEAR BYTES 

There is one unranked team favored over a ranked opponent this week and that’s Duke (-1.5) over No. 12 Georgia Tech. Last week, all three unranked favorites won and covered against their ranked opponents and have now won five of six games this year. Louisville against Virginia was the lone loss. 

ELEVEN!

There are 11 ranked teams on the road against unranked teams: Nebraska (-8.5) at Minnesota, Oklahoma (-5.5) at South Carolina, Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas, Texas Tech (-9.5) at ASU, Missouri (-1.5) at Auburn, and Georgia Tech (+1.5) at Duke. And all are favored by single digits or are an underdog in this spot. 

There are six games this week featuring a team that’s winless in conference play vs. a team undefeated in conference this week. Could be a sleepy type spot for the undefeated teams. Those games: Cincinnati at Oklahoma State, Memphis at UAB, Texas A&M at Arkansas, MSU at Indiana, OSU at Wisconsin and Buffalo at UMASS.

Louisville @ No. 2 Miami 

Jeff Brohm has been a double-digit ‘dog 14 times as a head coach. His teams have won four times outright, including a 12-point win as an 11.5-point ’dog at Clemson last year. Miami’s average starting field position against Power Four teams is +10. That’s top in the nation. 

No. 14 Oklahoma @ South Carolina 

Brent Venables is 1-7 in his last eight games against Power Four teams played in October or later. His career mark is 9-15. Oklahoma is one of two Power Four teams (Arkansas) which has not forced a turnover against another Power Four team this season. South Carolina has forced 11, which is second-most in the country. Oklahoma is 58th in points per drive vs. Power Four teams. South Carolina is 61st. Might not be a whole lot of points here. 

No. 5 Ole Miss @ No. 9 Georgia

This is the sixth top-10 matchup this season. The first five were all won by the lower-ranked team, including Indiana’s upset win at Oregon last week. Dating back to the 2022 CFP Championship Game, there have been 38 top-10 matchups. The spread hasn’t mattered in 35 of the 38. Win the game, and you cover the spread in all but three (35-1-2). In that stretch, 15 underdogs have won outright. The only favorite in that stretch to win outright and take an against-the-spread loss was Texas in last year’s CFP, when it beat Arizona State 39-31 as a 13.5-point favorite. 

Ole Miss (6-0) is a 7.5-point underdog at Georgia on Saturday. Last year, there were four teams 6-0 or better that were at least 7-point ‘dogs away from home in the regular season. Those four teams went 0-4 and lost by an average of 29.5 points per game (186-68). Excluding the COVID-affected 2020 season, in the last 10 years, this has happened 16 times. The 6-0 teams have gone 1-15 (6-9-1 ATS), with Michigan’s win at Ohio State in 2022 being the lone win. In the last 20 years, the mark has shrunk to 3-25 (11-15-2 ATS). Notably, the three teams that won — 2022 Michigan, 2015 Michigan State and 2012 Notre Dame — each reached the CFP or BCS Championship Game. 

Dating back to 2017, Georgia has played in 13 ranked matchups at Sanford Stadium. UGA has won 12, with the loss to Alabama three weeks ago the lone blemish. 

Florida State @ Stanford 

Florida State has lost eight straight ACC games and is 1-10 in ACC play dating back to last year. 

No. 25 Nebraska @ Minnesota

Nebraska is 5-15 in its last 20 road games with 10 of those losses coming by seven points or fewer. The Huskers won at Maryland last week and will aim to win road games in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2006.

No. 23 Utah @ No. 15 BYU

BYU, at 6-0, is a home underdog to 5-1 Utah. Over the last 20 years, there have been 14 teams 6-0 or better that were home underdogs to a team with a loss. Those 14 teams went 4-10, with the last such instance being Penn State’s 20-13 loss to Ohio State last season. Utah has a +55 first-half scoring margin against Power Four teams this season. That’s the best in the nation. BYU is seeking its first three-game win streak over Utah since a four-game streak from 1989-92.

Michigan State @ No. 3 Indiana

Michigan State has allowed 40 points to Boston College, 45 to USC, 38 to Nebraska and 38 to UCLA. Wish the Spartans luck against Indiana this weekend. 

No. 16 Missouri @ Auburn 

In the last 15 years, there have been 13 ranked teams 5-1 or better to go on the road and play a team that didn’t have a winning record as a favorite of a field goal or less. Those road teams have gone 10-3 in those games. Auburn is 5-14 in SEC games under Hugh Freeze (2-14 vs teams with a winning record). 

Penn State @ Iowa

Excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season, Penn State has not had a losing record after seven games since 2004, when the Lions finished 4-6. Coincidentally, the seventh game of that year was a 6-4 loss to Iowa. This week’s opponent? Iowa. Iowa is currently favored by a field goal over PSU. Dating back to 2019, Iowa is 19-3 in regular season games in which the spread is between +3 and -3. 

No. 10 LSU @ No. 17 Vanderbilt

Dating back to 1978, this is the 176th game Vanderbilt has played against a ranked opponent. It’s the first time the Commondores have been favored in such a game. This is just the fifth ranked matchup Vanderbilt will play since 1978. The only one it won was in 2008. That was when No. 19 Vanderbilt beat No. 13 Auburn, 14-13.

No. 1 Ohio State @ Wisconsin

In Power Four play, Wisconsin has a yards per play difference of -2.66. Only Oklahoma State is worse. The Badgers are averaging a Power Four-worst 4.0 YPP vs. Power Four teams. 

No. 7 Texas Tech @ Arizona State 

Texas Tech has outgained its Power Four opponents by 230.7 yards per game. That’s the best in the nation. 

No. 20 USC @ No. 13 Notre Dame

Against Power Four teams this season, Notre Dame averages 7.2 yards per play. USC averages 7.0. That goes for first and third, nationally. All three meetings between Lincoln Riley and Marcus Freeman have gone Over the total. USC has lost seven straight (0-4 under Lincoln Riley) games as a road underdog. In its last 20 games as a road ‘dog, USC has pulled just two upsets (5-15 ATS). 

No. 21 Texas @ Kentucky 

Under Steve Sarkisian, Texas has yet to cover the week following the Oklahoma game (3-2 SU/0-4-1 ATS). Dating back to the Tom Herman era, Texas is 0-7-1 ATS (5-3 SU) the week after Oklahoma. 

No. 4 Texas A&M @ Arkansas 

Arkansas has lost 12 of 13 vs. A&M. Five of the last seven losses have been by seven points or fewer. 

No. 8 Oregon @ Rutgers 

The Oregon offense has produced just three touchdowns in the last eight quarters.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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