There comes a time for every NFL QB when his contract has run its course. Sometimes that happens at the literal end of the deal. More often, the team and quarterback collide for contract negotiations before the deal is over — or the team trades (or cuts) the quarterback.

This offseason, we’ve seen more than one team take care of business with its quarterback. Perhaps most notably, 49ers QB Brock Purdy inked a five-year extension worth $265 million. NFL MVP Josh Allen also got a new deal with Buffalo. But it has been a fairly quiet offseason compared to last year, when multiple quarterbacks signed deals that pay them $50-plus million per year.

Over the next 12 months, things should get interesting again.

By this time next year, I think six quarterbacks’ contracts will become a problem — either for the team or the player. So let’s look at which situations might get complicated.

Current deal: five years, $260 million, $52 million annually

Jackson is currently the 10th highest-paid quarterback in terms of annual pay. He has also made $30 million fewer dollars than Josh Allen since the two QBs entered the NFL in 2018, which probably doesn’t sit well with Jackson. 

The Ravens and Jackson could both win with a new deal. The QB is set to make almost $30 million in new money this year, but that number will jump to almost $60 million in new money next year when his cap hit is $74.5 million. By putting together a new deal, the Ravens could lower that 2026 hit to help with roster-building. So there’s some incentive there.

But how much will Jackson want?

Because he could easily demand $60-plus million per year.

Jackson is one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL, and while Allen and Mahomes are taking team-friendly deals, they’ve also made a whole lot more money than Jackson so far. He can go the discount route on the next deal. Now would be a good time to cash in.

Current deal: four years, $36 million, $9 million annually

The 2023 draft has been a mixed bag when it comes to quarterbacks, but if there’s one signal-caller from that class who you can bet will get paid big next year, it’s Stroud.

His rookie season was a masterpiece of efficiency. He threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. And he got his OC Bobby Slowik into the conversation for a few head coaching jobs. Of course, last year, Stroud struggled (3,727, 20 TDs, 12 INTs) and Slowik got fired. So this year will be a big one for Stroud to place himself at the top of the market. And it would almost be an easy conversation if Stroud had a big year. The Texans could just give him somewhere around $60 million annually and lock him up for the longterm.

It gets complicated if Stroud’s 2025 season isn’t great. Because if he struggles to perform at a high level, then there will be questions about his value. Would he take $50 million per year? Would he take $55 million per year? There might even be questions about whether the Texans delay extending him for another year. 

Current deal: four years, $37.9 million, $9.4 million annually

The Panthers are letting Young run the organization at the outset of 2025. Past that, it’s anyone’s guess. He’s not exactly overpaid, given the inconsistency of his career to this point. He showed signs of high-level performance at the end of last season. But with a young core and a strong head coach, Young needs to start winning games.

If he can do that — and put up good numbers — the Panthers might just commit to him for the future. But it gets murky if the Panthers aren’t winning. It gets murkier if Young’s statistics continue to be underwhelming. He was bad enough for Carolina to bench him last year. Young’s 2025 season must be squeaky clean if he wants to earn himself long-term stability. Because in 2026, it’s easy to imagine Young could be making $50-plus million annually. Or being a third-stringer on another team. 

That’s how much the pendulum could swing. 

Current deal: four years, $212 million, $53.1 million annually

Can Tagovailoa stay healthy?

This is a question for the Dolphins as much as it is for Tua. Because he can control his protections before the snap, but he can’t control his offensive line’s execution of those protections. Miami needs to hope its offensive line is better in 2025. And that Tagovailoa stays clean. And healthy. 

Tua, meanwhile, needs to stop running headfirst into defenders — like he did last year when he suffered a concussion against the Bills. If Tagovailoa can stay on the field, he might just get this offense back into the elite form of 2023. 

But if not, then his contract could look bloated. Coach Mike McDaniel might like Tua, but if the coach gets fired after another down year, will the next coach think Tagovailoa is worth his price tag? If things don’t go well, there’s an outside shot the Dolphins will trade Tua next offseason — because of his oversized contract.

Current deal: five years, $275 million, $55 million annually

New head coach Liam Coen has a big job. He’s in charge of making Lawrence into a $55 million QB. Last year, Lawrence was not that. He finished with 2,045 yards, 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games. It was a far cry from 2022, when Lawrence threw for 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions while taking his team to the playoffs. 

The Jaguars handed Lawrence a massive contract, because what else were they to do? He was the No. 1 overall pick. He was a generational prospect. And letting him leave made little sense from a logistical standpoint — and even less from an optics standpoint. 

Everything is in line for Lawrence to make good on his contract. Coen is in the building. Brian Thomas Jr. is producing like a top-flight receiver. And the Jaguars swung big with their trade-up for Travis Hunter. 

But …

But!

The expectations for Lawrence are that he’ll far exceed what he’s done in recent history.

If Lawrence fails to hit levels of production he’s never managed, then the Jaguars will have some serious questions about why they’re paying Lawrence the same amount that the Bengals are paying Joe Burrow. 

There might not be a whole lot the Jaguars can do about Lawrence’s deal in the near future. But if he can’t elevate his game, the deal will become a big problem in the near future.

Current deal: one year, $14 million

By putting Jones on this list, I’ve baked in my prediction about how his season is going to go with Indianapolis. I think the Colts are going to get nervous about Anthony Richardson’s lack of development, largely because the leadership team is on the hot seat. So when Richardson struggles, Indy will use those issues to justify turning the position over to a more stable presence: Jones. He’ll probably start 12 to 15 games. And during that time, he will likely post numbers worthy of the Colts considering him for QB1 on a short-term deal, maybe two years. 

But then what the heck do you pay him? How good would he have to be to make Baker Mayfield money? Or Geno Smith money?

I think there’s a real shot Jones could be angling for $40 million annually at this time next year. Would the Colts really pay him that?

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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